New Canaan Football Needs To Beat Darien To Get Into State Playoffs
Defending four-time state champions currently 10th in Class L rankings
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With only the Thanksgiving Day game against Darien remaining, the New Canaan football team is still on the outside looking in for a spot in the Class L state playoffs.
Having won four consecutive state championships, the Rams certainly aren't used to being in this position this late in the season.
As New Canaan coach Lou Marinelli indicated following the 56-28 win over Bridgeport Central, it is beyond frustrating. In Marinelli's opinion, this could be his most talented team in 30 years at New Canaan.
The Rams certainly have been scoring points in bunches lately, having registered 141 in the last three games. It's as if they've been in a foul mood since the 28-27 loss to St. Joseph.
It would be a bitter pill if New Canaan misses the state playoffs because of a missed two-point conversion against the Cadets.
The first-half schedule - in which New Canaan's first five opponents were a combined 3-22 - certainly did the Rams no favors.
The bottom line is New Canaan (8-1) must beat Darien (9-0) to have a shot at a fifth consecutive state title.
But could the Rams beat the undefeated Blue Wave, who face Trumbull in Friday's FCIAC championship game, and still not get in?
If our math is correct, it would be entirely possible for that to happen. Even with a win over Darien, the Rams would still be in a precarious position, sweating out the final point totals.
Here are the current standings - two through 10 in Class L (Masuk already has clinched a playoff spot), with records, point totals and final opponent (the Rams are 10th and would have to jump over two opponents to get into the top eight.):
2.Darien (9-0) 1190 -- New Canaan (8-1)
3.Hand (8-1) 1110 -- Guilford (5-4)
4.Wethersfield (8-1) 1100 -- Newington (0-9)
5.Avon (8-1) 1060 -- NW Regional (6-3)
6.Naugatuck (8-1) 1050 -- Ansonia (9-0)
7.North Haven (8-1) 1020 -- Amity (4-5)
8. Maloney (8-1) 1010 -- Platt (7-2)
9. Bristol Eastern (8-1) 1010 -- Bristol Central (1-8)
10 NewCanaan (8-1) 990 -- Darien (9-0)
New Canaan's best bet is to root for Naugatuck to lose to a nine-win Ansonia team and for Maloney to fall to a seven-win Platt squad. If those two results occur, the Rams would be assured of finishing in the top eight with a win over Darien.
New Canaan might actually need only one of the two to lose because the Rams probably would probably jump ahead of Bristol Eastern because of the bonus points.
Marinelli is going to become a huge Ansonia fan in the next week.
But if everybody wins, including Naugatuck, here's what the updated totals would like (teams get 100 points for each victory and 10 bonus points for each win attained by an opponent it has beaten. For example, New Canaan would pick up 190 points by beating Darien):
2. Hand 1260
3. Naugatuck 1240
4. Avon 1220
5. Wetherfield 1200
6. Darien 1190
7. Maloney 1180
7. New Canaan 1180
9. North Haven 1160
10. Bristol Eastern 1120
New Canaan would be guaranteed another 20 points because the winners of the games between Warde-Ludlowe and Trinity Catholic-Wilton games would be teams the Rams have beaten. New Canaan also figures to get another 10 points with a Central win over Harding.
Here is the schedule for the other teams New Canaan has beaten this season:
Bassick (0-9) vs, Bullard-Havens Tech (six wins)
Seymour (0-9) vs. Woodland (six wins)
Greenwich (5-4) vs. Staples (eight wins)
If none spring an upset, the Rams likely would finish with 1,210 points. If Wethersfield (two wins), Darien (three) and and Maloney (four) get enough bonus points to climb over that mark, it would come down to North Haven needing 60 added bonus points to jump over the Rams, and it wouldn't be that far-fetched for it to happen.
Here is the remaining schedule for North Haven's opponents:
Hamden (0-9) vs. ND-West Haven (six wins)
Branford (1-7) vs. Ledyard (five wins), East Haven (two wins)
Sheehan (2-7) vs. Lyman Hall (one win)
East Haven (2-7) vs. Branford (one win)
ND-WH (6-3) vs. Hamden (no wins)
Trinity Catholic (3-6) vs. Wilton (three wins)
Foran (3-6) vs. Platt Tech (no wins), Law (two wins)
Lyman Hall (7-2) vs. Sheehan (two wins).
North Haven is guaranteed at least 30 points from the winners of the Hamden-NDWH, Lyman Hall-Sheehan and Branford- East Haven games because the Indians beat all six teams. That gets them to 1190 points.
In addition to that, Trinity Catholic certainly could beat Wilton and Foran could beat Platt Tech and Law, which would leave North Haven with 1,220 points - 10 more than New Canaan.
If that happens, New Canaan would have to finish ahead of one of the following three teams to finish in the top eight (Masuk, Hand, Naugatuck -- assuming a win over Ansonia - and Avon would be assured of finishing ahead of the Rams with North Haven now in front as well): Wethersfield, Darien and Maloney (Bristol Eastern would not be able to pass the Rams).
Here are the closing schedules for those teams' opponents they have beaten:
Wethersfield (assuming win over Newington, see above)
Rockville (1-8) -- vs. South Windsor (five wins)
Plainville (8-1) -- vs. NW Catholic (three wins)
E.O Smith (2-7) -- vs. Tolland (no wins)
Weaver (1-8) -- vs. Hartford Public (five wins)
Conard (7-2) -- vs. Hall (eight wins)
Fermi (3-6) -- vs. Farmington (five wins)
RHAM (5-4) -- vs. Bacon Academy (four wins)
NW Catholic (3-6) -- Plainville (eight wins)
With 1,200 points, Wethersfield would need 20 to move ahead of New Canaan. Wins by Plainville and Conard would do it.
Darien (assuming loss to New Canaan)
Warde (4-5) vs. Ludlowe (one win)
Danbury (3-6) -- vs. Rigefield (six wins)
St. Joseph (7-2) -- vs. Trumbull (eight wins)
Wilton (3-6) -- vs. Trinity Catholic (three wins)
Red Lion (7-3) -- season complete
Trinity Catholic (3-6) -- vs. Wilton (three wins)
Bassick (0-9) -- Bullard-Havens (six wins)
Westhill (1-8) -- vs. Stamford (five wins)
Norwalk (3-6) -- vs. McMahon (five wins)
With 1,190 points, Darien would need 30 to pass New Canaan. It is guaranteed 10 in the Wilton-Trinity Catholic game, but only Warde will be favored in the other games.
Maloney (assuming win over Platt, see above)
Rockville (1-8) -- South Windsor (five wins)
RHAM (5-4) -- Bacon Academy (four wins)
Fermi (3-6) -- Farmington (five wins)
Bristol Central (1-8) -- vs. Bristol Eastern (eight wins)
Weaver (1-8)-- Hartford Public (five wins)
E.O. Smith (2-7) -- vs. Tolland (no wins)
Wethersfield (8-1) -- Newington (no wins)
Tolland (0-9) -- E.0. Smith (two wins)
With 1,180 points Maloney needs 40 to pass New Canaan. The only favorites, however, will be RHAM and Wethersfield (which we've already assumed will beat Newington).
If all goes according to form, here are our projections (We've already assumed that North Haven will finish ahead of New Canaan)
6.Wethersfield 1,220
7.New Canaan 1,210
7.Darien 1,210
9. Maloney 1,200
There are, of course, too many variables to know exactly what is going to happen. But the bottom line is that New Canaan, as stated earlier, is in a very tenuous position.
Four Jacks
2:15 pm on Monday, November 15, 2010
New Canaan CAN beat Darien! GO RAMS!!!!
NC Ram
3:32 pm on Monday, November 15, 2010
Reminds me of the big 2008 showdown that was played at Boyle Stadium in Stamford. Media had the game as a toss-up. We crushed Darien and then had the pleasure of crushing them again for the state title -- even after a 1 hour delay waiting for the equipment to show up from a crippled NCHS team bus!!
What I don't understand is the irony of a team's total points being a factor in deciding who makes the state tournament. CT has the distinction of being the only state in the union who penalizes a HS team for beating an opponent by 50 points or more. So if a team runs up the score, they're coach is suspended and penalized. However, total points scored is a factor in determining state playoff qualifications -- Whiskey Tango Foxtrot? Why can't we simply have a meritocracy like the other 49 states?? Is CT too blue and leans too socialistic -- "everyone's a winner!" and "no one should have to face the humility and embarrassment of losing by more than 50 points" -- even if the losing team did not prepare well, practice hard enough, put all their heart and soul into a game. Those loser teams should get mercy and not face real world consequences of really sucking!!!
Observer
10:41 am on Tuesday, November 16, 2010
The scores of the games have no bearing. The "points" discussed in the article are the playoff system points, which is 100 points for a win (by any margin, against anybody), plus 10 points additional for each win throughout the season by a team that you defeat.
The only gripe that NC might have could be that they had a weak schedule....which is not selected by them, other than the non-conference game (and even that one depends on being able to find someone who is willing to play you). I think it would be a good idea to exempt that game from counting for or against teams in the state picture, although I'm not sure if other conferences are even playing those. If that were done, tougher teams would look to match up against each other mid season without the threat of an extra loss eliminating post season hopes. Of course, that still might not have done anything for NC this year.
Bob Birge
2:03 pm on Thursday, November 18, 2010
The Observer is 100 percent correct. Margin of victory has no bearing on the playoff standings. In the eyes of the CIAC, a 49-0 victory is the same as a 10-7 win.
Here are a few other stats that will be sure to frustrate New Canaan fans. Of the eight 8-1 teams in Class L, New Canaan has the highest ranking in the New Haven Register media poll (sixth).
Here's where the other teams stand:
Hand -- 9
Wethersfield -- NR
Avon -- NR
Naugatuck 14
North Haven -- 19
Maloney 24
Bristol Eastern 21
Three of New Canaan's opponents -- Bassick (0-9), Ludlowe (1-8) and Seymour (0-9) -- have a combined record 1-26.
The Rams have no control over their FCIAC schedule. They certainly can control who they play outside the FCIAC, so maybe it seems like a mistake picking up Seymour.
Keep in mind, however, when the matchup was made two years ago, Seymour was coming off a state championship. At that time, it seemed like a great game to add.
Anyway, the state playoff system in Connecticut is far from perfect.