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A Few Showers Today Builds to Heavy Rains for the Area Tomorrow!

"Toad Strangling" Rain on the Way to Fairfield County!

 

Good Morning, 

So many of the forecast ideas which we had laid out early yesterday morning were based on the premise that a cold front would manage to reach the shores of southeastern New England and New Jersey by around 6 a.m. today...

And, this front would also extend southwestward through central Maryland and into southern West Virginia... However, it is much more apparent now that this front will be delayed by about 6-8 hours, and that will have some implications on what we can expect moving forward today...

The regional radar mosaic as of 3 a.m. EDT was showing a broken line of showers moving across central and eastern Pennsylvania... Certainly, many of us have been "waiting on these showers with baited breath" for at least ten or twelve hours, and it does look as if these will finally reach the City and its adjacent suburbs during the early stages of today...

As this sluggish front eventually presses southward this afternoon and it eventually stalls over South Jersey and Delaware, there is obviously a concern that there will be a few additional showers sliding along this nearly stationary boundary... But, for the Hudson Valley, much of Connecticut, northwestern New Jersey and most of the City's other northern suburbs, there is a decent chance that the sun will manage to pop out for at least a while this afternoon...

By and large, the farther SOUTH your location, the more likely it will stay cloudy all day, and the chances will be greater that there will be something more than just "a morning shower or two"... Temperatures will wind up in the upper 60s and lower 70s across the Tri-State Area, with cloud cover during the afternoon going a long way in determining where the temperatures will ultimately wind up...

The pattern doesn't get much easier tonight and tomorrow, but we'll obviously impart our 'best guesses' here... That stalling front, which will be draped over the Delmarva Peninsula and extreme South Jersey late today and tonight, will have a low pressure system develop along it...

This still is consistent with the thoughts we expressed yesterday, but the details regarding just how much it will rain, when and where are only starting to become clearer this morning...

First of all, there should be a blossoming area of rain early tonight, which will encompass most of Maryland, Delaware, parts of Virginia, southeastern Pennsylvania and southern New Jersey...

This rain should then begin to creep northeastward later tonight, covering most of the Tri-State Area after midnight... This rain will last into tomorrow, and there should even be a few rumbles of thunder heard... Based on the model output, quantitative rainfall amounts from 6 p.m. today through 6 p.m. tomorrow (by then, most of the rain will have tapered to showers, or it will have ended) will average 0.50" to 1.00"...

Temperatures will be stuck in the 60s tomorrow in those areas where the rain is most persistent, but our forecast continuity from previous shifts is WAY BELOW the numbers, which suggest it could reach the mid 70s on Friday afternoon... As a compromise, we'll forecast a high around 70, and also assume that the wettest part of the day will be the first half... There will probably only be a couple of leftover showers by Friday's evening rush hours... 

The rest of the forecast period does still present us with a series of challenges, but while the 'Big Picture' still has us convinced that there could be a couple of showers around on Saturday, Sunday AND Monday, it doesn't look as much now like it did during previous shifts that Sunday will be a 'wash-out'...

Saturday's temperatures will probably struggle to get out of the 60s in most places, if they do at all, because of cloud cover and a couple of widely separated showers... The European and the G.F.S. are now providing solutions that would suggest an upper-level low pressure system, hanging back over the eastern Great Lakes on Saturday night and Sunday, WILL NOT cause a brand new wave of low pressure to form along the mid-Atlantic coast...

This was our earlier concern, or the 'soggiest scenario' for Sunday across the Northeast... However, it is looking more like the kind of day where some more scattered showers are likely, and not "several hours of rain"... 

More showers are possible on Monday, and then we are anticipating a "break" in the unsettled pattern Tuesday and Wednesday... During the first few days of October (ironically), a high pressure system should eventually promote some sunny and warmer weather -- and most temperatures will be no lower than the mid 70s by the middle of next week... 

Have a good day!!!

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