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Rainy Start to the Weekend

Heavy rain starts the weekend, but we dry out Saturday and Sunday!

 

Rain is spreading northward and eastward across the Tri-State Area early today... A wave of low pressure, which we have been talking about for the past couple of days, did form yesterday afternoon in the Ohio Valley along a front that managed to stall in the mid-Atlantic states...

Therefore, even though the City's shower activity occurred very early yesterday and then clouds did manage to part for a good deal of sunshine, the prognosis for today includes needing the rain gear, and packing a little 'extra patience' when it comes to getting around...

The regional radar as of 3:15 a.m. was showing that much of the rain in the Five Boroughs and in most coastal communities was very light and spotty... However, it also revealed that there were pockets of heavier rain occurring in many areas not very far to the north and west — primarily over northern New Jersey and across various sections of eastern Pennsylvania...

So, with these radar echoes (including some thunderstorm activity) heading to the north and east at around 15-20 miles per hour, it can be assumed that there will be a few bouts of heavy rain which will need to be dealt with during the course of the morning... The wave of low pressure responsible for this rain, which will bring an average of 0.50" to 1.00" across the area, will start tracking to the north and east this afternoon, and it will be pulling a cool front from northwest to southeast across the coastal plain...

This will result in a tendency for the steadiest rain (between now and 1 or 2 p.m.) to taper to showers in time for the evening rush hours... Temperatures, as long as the rain lets up, will be close to 70 this afternoon...

Tonight, some shower activity will linger for a while in parts of the region... At the very least, coastal Connecticut and central/eastern Long Island will probably still encounter some light rain, and clouds should tend to linger almost everywhere... Some fog is liable to form overnight, and that process would only be accelerated if the sky were to attempt to clear before midnight...

The outlook for the upcoming weekend is certainly much better than what we had perceived it to be a few days ago... A move was made yesterday before the midday hours to remove any and all shower activity from tomorrow's forecast... As some drier air begins to filter into the Tri-State Area from the north and northwest late tonight and tomorrow morning, there should be some sun as well as clouds tomorrow...

The current, prevailing thoughts now are that an upper-level low pressure system will remain located over the eastern Great Lakes Saturday night and Sunday... And, while this does imply that a wave of low pressure forming out over the Atlantic Ocean on Sunday may bring a few showers to Long Island and much of New England, areas located farther to the west (including the City, much of the Hudson Valley and northern New Jersey) will probably remain rain free...

However, the 'rosy outlook' that was being portrayed for the middle of next week now has some 'thorns'... The European global forecast model is the most bullish on developing a wave of low pressure over the southeastern U.S. and bringing its plume of moisture up the Eastern Seaboard on Tuesday....

So, there probably won't be much to talk about on Monday around here, but the feature located in the southern tier of states will need to be watched very closely for Tuesday/Tuesday night... In a worst-case scenario, there may be some rain on Wednesday...

We don't want to 'put all of our eggs in one basket' and buy just one model's solution from five or six days away, but we obviously will have some challenges here / items to sort out in the coming days...

Have a good weekend!!!

This post is contributed by a community member. The views expressed in this blog are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Patch Media Corporation. Everyone is welcome to submit a post to Patch. If you'd like to post a blog, go here to get started.

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