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Cloudy, Warm, Humid, Shower for a Couple of Days. BUT! Fall Makes a Come Back Sunday!

Showers for a couple of days as we hit 80 degrees Thursday, but Fall come back Sunday!

 

Today: Cloudy, Humid, Mild With A Few Showers  High: 73

Tonight: Cloudy and Humid, A Couple of Showers Low: 63

Tomorrow: Sun & Clouds, Warm & Humid A Few Showers & A Thunderstorm Possible High: 77 Low: 63

Good Morning,

After some very nice weather yesterday, the clouds that we've been talking about have arrived across the entire Tri-State Area, and these will continue to thicken and lower this morning... In fact, some places between the Greater D.C. and Philadelphia Metro Areas have picked up a touch of rain and drizzle during the night, since there is a warm front that is in the process of pushing northward across the mid-Atlantic region very early today... We'll need to be on the lookout for a spotty shower or some drizzle early today, especially in areas which are located across central and southern New Jersey -- however, the City and all points north and east will probably not see any kind of shower activity develop until this afternoon... Most temperatures, despite all of the clouds, will reach the lower and middle 70s today... It will be turning gradually more humid over the course of the next 24 hours, as the warm front eventually pushes into New England, and some relatively warm and moist air continues to surge northward along the Eastern Seaboard...

As we had pointed out yesterday, we aren't expecting too much in the way of rainfall -- just a general 0.25 to 0.50" across the region during the 36 hours, and that certainly won't be rain that will be heavy enough to cause any serious flooding problems... Instead, we'll be trending warmer around here over the next few days, with most places seeing their temperatures peak in the upper 70s or the lower 80s... In a handful of places, primarily located to the west and southwest of the City, it could reach the lower 80s as early as tomorrow, as long as there's enough sunshine...

But, we must also be mindful of the fact that there could be a shower or thunderstorm in a few places, especially during the afternoon and evening hours...

Wednesday's forecasted high temperature of 80 in the Park was taken down by a couple of degrees yesterday afternoon, which does present us with somewhat of a dilemma early today...

Nearly all forms of numerical guidance are suggesting it will be 80 tomorrow afternoon, but we're reluctant to change the high of 77 we have this morning, because of the apparent "flip-flop" maneuver -- so we'll wait for the 12z model run to come in before changing it again (in other words, we could revert back to a high of 80 at midday or this afternoon)... Another change that was made yesterday was to take Thursday's temperature up into the lower 80s, and the numbers do support that... Therefore, we'll keep the high of 81 that we currently have...

This, by the way, is well shy of the current record for Thursday's date in Central Park, which is 88, set on October 4, 1941...

With a good deal of sunshine expected on Thursday and Friday across the area, temperatures will be more than ten degrees above the seasonal averages... Even though there could be some issues involving morning fog both days, this should dissipate rather quickly...

The weekend will present us with our next round of challenges... The season's chilliest air mass thus far is about to cross the Canadian border and into the northern Plains tonight and tomorrow, and it will eventually be reaching the East Coast this weekend --- albeit in a 'modified form'... The trend in recent runs of both the G.F.S. and the European (including last night's European global model data, which has just rolled in shortly after 2 a.m. EDT) is indicating that we have probably been a little too fast in bringing this much cooler air all the way to the East Coast in previous forecasts...

There is more evidence now that temperatures on Saturday afternoon will probably still manage to reach the lower and middle 70s, and then as the leading edge of that much cooler air arrives late in the day or at night, we will have a much better chance of seeing some rain occur... That rain could begin later on Saturday or Saturday night and last into Sunday, especially if a wave of low pressure were to develop along the front, like some models are suggesting... The bottom line here is that Saturday should be the milder of the two weekend days, and then temperatures on both Sunday and Monday will probably be no higher than the lower 60s...

Have a good day !!!

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