Today: Sunny & Pleasant, High:77
Tonight: Clouds Increase with Showers by Daybreak Low: 66
Tuesday: Windy & Humid with Showers & Thunderstorms Becoming Heavier in the Afternoon and Evening
Street and Highway Flooding Possible High: 77 Low: 63
The weather across the Northeast and in the mid-Atlantic states today should pick up where yesterday left off... There's a ridge of high pressure on this morning's surface weather map, which is still expected to bring a fair amount of sunshine today... Temperatures should climb well into the 70s, and it will even reach 80 degrees on a few thermometers -- this will occur the most across Maryland, Virginiaand in southern Delaware... While we should be on the lookout for patchy fog early today, mainly in some of the river valleys, it shouldn't be widespread or dense... But, while we can't seem to say enough nice things about the weather today, it does appear that the pattern will be going downhill tonight and tomorrow... And, especially around the central and southern Appalachians, this process isn't going to take very long... Last Friday, we talked briefly about a series of upper-level disturbances that will be marching across the eastern half of North America... The southern-most of these features, which is expected to bring some heavy thunderstorms to the central Gulf Coast and to parts of the Tennessee Valley today, will be unlocking some warm and moist air that originates from the Gulf of Mexico... Meanwhile, looking farther to the north, there is currently a vigorous impulse of jet stream energy that is moving across south-central Canada... This parcel of energy, which has a low pressure system and a very strong cold front associated with it, will be moving across the Great Lakes tonight before slowing down somewhat as it approaches the Appalachians later tomorrow.
So, with these 'two pieces' coming together over the eastern third of the nation: The warm, rich source of moist air flowing in from the south, and that strong front pushing into the region from the north and west -- we feel strongly there is going to be a good, thorough soaking rain occurring around here during the next
48 hours... And, based on the timing of the front's arrival and the consensus which is now being built amongst the global forecast models, the bulk of this rain will occur later tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night... But, that rationale doesn't prohibit the idea that a couple of showers can't occur as early as late tonight or even tomorrow morning close to the I-95 corridor, because a warm front arriving late tonight should trigger scattered showers... Quantitative precipitation forecasts show a general 1-2 inches of rain will fall between late tonight and early Wednesday morning... However, there certainly can be some places that pick up an additional inch -- especially if there are slow-moving thunderstorms involved...
The Storm Prediction Center already 'weighed in' relatively early yesterday, issuing a large slight risk area for severe weather for Day Three (Tuesday) from central and southern New York State all the way down to eastern Georgia... That forecasting office doesn't often issue these kinds of alerts from outside a 48-hour time frame... But, they do point out the fact that a 'full-latitude trough', or a deep trough of low pressure which digs into the area when there are two pieces of jet stream energy that tend to phase like this, creates an environment where thunderstorms may bring damaging wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall...
Because of cloud cover issues and a general increase in the amount of shower activity tomorrow (wet for some of us during the morning, but then for most in the afternoon and at night), we believe most daytime temperatures will fail to get out of the 70s...
Wednesday, whatever leftover showers there are during the morning associated with this cold front should be wrapping up across southeastern New England and on eastern Long Island fairly early... Drier and cooler air will be filtering into the area on a northwest wind, and most temperatures on Wednesday afternoon will be no higher than the lower or middle-70s, even though the sun should manage to come out for a while... At this juncture, Thursday and Friday look nice with a decent amount of sunshine... Showers may return for the start of next weekend.
Have a good day!!!