"People will generally accept facts as truth only if the facts agree with what they already believe." Andy Rooney
This is the statistical snapshot of the New Canaan Real Estate market and our outlook for 2012.
YEAR END REPORT 2011
The real estate market has stabilized. We are getting more of the distressed properties sold and out of the bank system. It was predicted that "shadow inventory" (foreclosed or ready for foreclosure homes) would flood the market. Well, it never happened. Foreclosure filings in Connecticut dropped sharply in 2011 compared with the previous year, plunging 48 percent, according to RealtyTrac.
New Canaan saw year over year increases in every category, a trend suggesting a growing optimism on the part of sellers for 2012 market conditions. Here are some important numbers for the past year:
2011 Single Family Homes:
- Median Price: $1.60 million as compared to $1.46 million in 2010, up 9.4 percent
- Average Price: $1.90 million as compared to $1.69 million in 2010, up 11.9 percent
- Homes Sold: 214 homes sold in 2011 as compared to 195 a year ago, up 9.7 percent
- Absorption Rate: 10.7 months of inventory compared to 15.38, down 30.4 percent
- Active Inventory: 207 houses for sale compared to 236 a year ago, down 12 percent
- Median Price: $657,000 as compared to $595,000 in 2010, up 12 percent
- Average Price: $711,000 as compared to $656,000 in 2010, up 8.2 percent
- Condos Sold: 62 condos sold in 2011 as compared to 39 a year ago, up 59 percent
- Absorption Rate: 7.88 months of inventory compared to 21.94, down 64 percent
2011 Land Sales:
Perhaps the most dramatic increase has come in the market for land sales, again indicating an increased optimism on the part of builders and their customers.
The median sale price for the three lots sold in 2010 was $1,025,000. For 2011 the median price fell 31 percent to $700,000 and builders did respond, buying 19 lots this past year, an increase of 533 percent in volume. New construction activity has picked up as a result; builders are buying land at a cost that makes sense to build, primarily mid-range homes.
The rental market has improved. The absorption rate for rentals has dropped from 7.4 months to 4.1 months. That is how long the current inventory of properties would last at the current rate of sales. The number of rentals closed in 2011 increased 16.5 percent to 120 from 103. And, while the average rental price has increased 40 percent to $3,550, the median rental price has increased 162 percent to $4,200. The rental market tells us a good deal about the broader market. The reduction in the rental inventory and higher rental rates is due to the following factors:
- Owners losing their homes due to foreclosure and short sales can only rent.
- Tough lender qualification requirements, causing fewer buyers and more renters.
- Many have lost their equity in real estate and stock market = no down payment to purchase.
- Many have damaged their credit and will not qualify to purchase.
- Many have lost their job and are not able to get a loan.
The rental market is staring to produce much better cash flow and investors are actively purchasing more rental real estate.
2011 Interest Rates:
Interest rates broke their historical lows of 2004-2005.
The rates on average are about .5 to .75 percent below last year's rates. A sample of rates as of first week of November 2011 with zero points:
- Loans under $417K=3.87 percent (conforming loans)
- Loans between $417K to $625K=4 percent (this is the new Jumbo conforming)
- Loans above $625K=4.5 percent (this is Jumbo loans)
This year was a much better year than last year and we expect it to continue to get even better next year. The reason? We're experiencing an improving economy, lower interest rates and an upcoming presidential election. Historically, presidential elections bring about increased real estate activity, and coupled with low interest rates and increasing consumer confidence, it will help the New Canaan market to continue to grow in the coming year.
If you'd like to get updates to these statistics quarterly, or would like your own home evaluated, send us an email or call.
John Engel and Susan Engel @ Brotherhood & Higley, 203-966-3507