Politics & Government

New Canaan School Enrollment Higher Than Projected

The Board of Education compared projected versus actual enrollment for the 2012-2013 school year at their Monday meeting.

 

Based on enrollment figures collected as of June 22, 2012, New Canaan schools will welcome 4,191 students for the 2012-2013 school year - 81 more students than was projected by consultant Peter Prowda (former Data Consultant for the State Department of Education) and up 65 students from 4,126 enrolled for the 2011-2012 school year, as reviewed by the at their Monday meeting.

There will be 567 students enrolled at 550 students at and 498 students at , an increase of 33 students from 1,582 last year to 1,615 this year.

The , which involved moving students from South to East School on a street-by-street basis in order to combat overcrowding, projected that South School would decrease from 572 students to 546 students and East School would increase from 539 to 564 students for the 2012-2013 school year. This has Dr. John Bryan Starr’s 2012-2013 school year projections off by just three and four students.

enrollment will increase an estimated 65 students from 1,233 to 1,298; however, enrollment will decrease an estimated 33 students from 1,311 last year to 1,278 this year.

The largest discrepancy was Prowda’s projection that there would be a total of 235 Kindergarteners enrolled for the 2012-2013 school year when the total enrollment for Kindergarteners was 313 as of June 22, 2012 (underestimate of 78 students).

“'We were off 78 students at the Kindergarten level,” said board member Jim Kucharczyk, “that's four sections - that's mind boggling. I think this point deserves more scrutiny. I’m not sure there’s good predictions out there, but getting a professional assessment is well worth the district's time and money.”

“I want to echo Jim,” said board member Amy Rochlin, “I just want to make sure we go to the right party though to get that done and we don’t want to wait too late to contract with them.”

“I’d go a step further,” said board member Scott Gress, “I'm asking for our money back. I’m certainly not going to hire them again. These guys have proven to be poor at best. Two consultants have given us information we could have guessed ourselves. It's an enormous waste of time and money.”

“I’d like to stand up for Peter a little bit,” said board member Penny Rashin, “If you look through the classes year to year, it’s pretty accurate for first through 12th grade. Clearly there’s something going on for New Canaan Kindergarteners we need to sort out.”

“How hard is it to estimate how many Kindergarteners are going to first grade?” responded Gress.

“My hypothesis is that they're using a model that may have worked for 98 percent of school districts, but something has been going on in New Canaan and Westport that their model does not cover,” said Kucharczyk, “I think firing them is extreme. We need a professional to come in and tell us what their model is not capturing.”

The board is entertaining the idea of developing an enrollment committee to look more closely at school enrollment projections.

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The 2011-2012 school year enrollment figures were collected as of October 1, 2011.


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